Imagine you are at Philippe-Chatrier court.

Roland Garros. French open finals. Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal.

The match has gone to 5 sets and its time for the final tie breaker. Both players are profusely sweating, fighting for breath, still refusing to give up. Its match point in favour of Nadal when Roger hits a fantastic down the line forehand - pure perfection.

The crowd gasps in anticipation and everyone is up on their feet. Your eyes light up as you are a big Roger Federer fan, expecting his comeback. Suddenly out of nowhere, Nadal, who had absolutely no right returning Federer’s shot puts a full effort sprint and hits a return forehand. Federer anticipating Nadal’s tenacity is ready for the return. However the ball hits the net and just drops onto Federer’s side of the court, giving him no chance of reaching the ball in time.

Match Nadal.

Both players drop to the their knees, agony for one, joy for the other. The crowd could not believe what they had just witnessed. The most extraordinary finishes to undoubtedly the most extraordinary tennis they have ever witnessed. You drop to your seat in despair. You cannot believe Nadal’s luck. “It’s not fair” you say as you are experiencing deep anguish.

The next morning, you pick up the newspaper and you see the picture of Federer and Nadal hugging each other, holding their respective trophies and the headline reads “Victory Belongs to the Tenacious”, Roland Garros’ tagline. You don’t get it. Nadal was purely lucky.

We are surrounded by happenings that turn out to be a way that was mathematically less probable and hence rather unexpected. in many of these cases, when they end up being beneficial for one of the involved parties, they are categorised as “luck” or “qismat” as we say it in urdu. When we are on the winning side, we often say “luck favours the brave” and when we are on the losing side, those thoughts are replaced by “every dog has his day”. However, the question arises, why does luck favour the brave? What is it about being brave that allows someone to tip the odds in their favour.

What can be considered as luck :

• A start-up that suddenly “takes off” after years of obscurity.

• An athlete who “gets a lucky break” in the final seconds.

• An artist’s success story of “overnight success” coming after a decade of rejections.

It’s Not Luck — It’s Probability

Bravery doesn’t magically attract fortune. Bravery simply keeps you in the game long enough for probability to tilt in your favour.

If Nadal had given up on that forehand, as most players would, the net cord “luck” would have never happened. The miracle point only existed because he refused to walk away from it.

The longer you stay in the fight, the more chances you create for the improbable to happen. What outsiders see as luck is often just the visible tip of a long, invisible grind. Behind years of tenacity lies the destination. You don’t know how far the destination is while you’re on the road, and only those who keep going without obsessing over the odds get there, keep at it long enough, eventually making it highly improbable for them not to succeed, even if it happens by the most improbable of circumstances.

Sure there are people who get the same success as their peer faster than their peer, even though they might have worked less hard than the other, but it is because it only looks that way on the outside. We can never tell what struggles lie behind someone’s happy face. Just because someone is not grinding their teeth at every failed opportunity doesn’t necessarily mean they are not desperate. A calm smile can hide years of quiet desperation.

Bravery Is Staying at the Table

In life, this persistence looks different but works the same:

• The entrepreneur who survives multiple failed ventures before getting the break.

• The scientist who runs 99 failed experiments before the breakthrough.

• The athlete who trains through injuries, losing seasons, and doubt, until the one match where everything clicks.

Bravery doesn’t guarantee victory. But quitting guarantees defeat.

Bravery is what increases the odds that one day, the numbers roll your way.

Having courage in your heart and sticking to your duty, while believing in the process is what makes someone brave, and that is the hallmark of transformation and victory.

Luck doesn’t favour the brave. The brave just stay in the game long enough for probability to find them.